Has the Calgary Real Estate Market Hit Bottom?

According to the latest news release on June 1, 2009 from the Calgary Real Estate Board

http://www.creb.com/public/documents/statistics/2009/package/res-stats-2009-may.pdf

the number of single family homes and condos sold in May in Calgary Metro are both up from a year ago.

Year over year comparing 2009 to 2008, single family home sales were up by 16% and condo sales were up by 13%.

As I stated in a previous blog in my opinion a more significant statistic is the ratio of the number of sales compared to the existing inventory. In other words what portion of the available inventory is selling? The following graph illustrates the percentage of properties sold compared to the available inventory or the approximate absorbtion rate for single-family homes in Calgary Metro.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	March Month End Inventory Plus Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
May 2007	1,995	3,716 + 3,652 = 7,368	27.08%
May 2008	1,368	7,099 + 3,432 = 10,531	12.99%
May 2009	1,584	3,861 + 2,235 = 6,096	25.98%

 

For those of you who are currently in the market for a single family home you will have noticed that there is far less choice than a few short months ago! In fact the absorbtion rate for the month of March 2009 was only 16.99%.

When almost 26% of the available homes sell as in the month of May 2009 it is usually a reflection of a very healthy market. Properties still need to be priced at market value in order to sell but now face a lot less competition. Those who have been waiting for the “bottom” who have not yet bought have probably missed it – at least within this most recent cycle.

The condo market is still lagging behind the single family market but has also improved as can be seen from the following graph.

Month/Year	Condominium Sales	March Month End Inventory Plus Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
May 2007	887	1,173 +1,332 = 2,505	35.41%
May 2008	577	3,308 + 1,538 + 4,846	13.01%
May 2009	653	1,952 + 998 = 2,950	22.14%

 

I’ve always said that Real Estate is not rocket science, just common sense and the basic economics of supply and demand. Anyone involved in the Calgary Real Estate Market should be aware that the median price has increased from sitting at around $340,000 from December through to April up to $350,000 in May. The average price has increased to $394,397 in May after sitting between $373,000 and $379,000 for the past five months.

I will leave it to the economists to make long term predictions, but there has been a definite stabilization short term.

Hope this helps!

Susanita de Diego

Who is Your Real Estate Representative?

As of last month I have been in the Real Estate industry for 22 years. Having lived and breathed Real Estate for so long I sometimes forget that because Buyers and Sellers do not buy and sell Real Estate everyday that they may not share my knowledge about how our industry actually works. This can lead to erroneous assumptions about what is important in the buying and/or selling process.

On the selling side some property owners still believe that the Realtor who lists the property will be the same Realtor who brings the Buyer, when in fact this happens in only approximately 5% of Real Estate transactions. As a matter of fact, in many States in the US, one Realtor representing both the Buyer and the Seller, or Dual Agency, is forbidden. This is because of the potential conflict of interest. In Alberta, according to the laws that govern our industry, Realtors must disclose to a Buyer or Seller their legal relationship at the earliest possible moment.

In practice this means that any Realtor representing the Seller who receives a showing request directly from a Buyer MUST advise the Buyer of their Agency options at the very beginning of the relationship, often before they show the Seller’s home.

 The Buyers can choose a Customer relationship or a Client relationship. In a Customer relationship the Realtor MUST disclose to the Buyer that they will be representing the Seller and that while they have a duty to be fair, the Buyer will not receive “representation” or advice. If they want to receive full “representation” they must choose another Realtor to represent them. If they prefer a Client relationship the Realtor can provide them with “Agency” representation but because the Realtor is also representing the Seller he or she can only provide “Limited Dual Agency”. In Limited Dual Agency the Realtor must not disclose either party’s motivation or final price to the other party and must not favour one Client over another.  If you were a Buyer which relationship would you choose?

Some Sellers also assume that the Listing Realtor will be able to use their “sales” skills to “talk” a Buyer into paying more for their property. As you can see within “Limited Dual Agency” this is impossible for an ethical Realtor.

On the Buying side some Buyers believe that their Realtor will be able to find properties that are not yet listed and that the Buyers will be able to buy that property at a lower than market value price. In this case if a Realtor was able to locate a property that matched the Buyer’s criteria but was not yet listed, under the laws that govern our industry the Realtor MUST disclose to the Seller their legal relationship at the earliest possible moment and give them the options of a Customer relationship or a “Limited Dual Agency “ relationship. In a Customer relationship the Realtor MUST disclose that they are representing the Buyer and while they have a duty to be fair to the Seller they are on their own in a negotiation. If they want to receive full “representation” they must choose another Realtor to represent them.  If they prefer a Client relationship the Realtor can provide them with “Agency” representation but because the Realtor is also representing the Buyer he or she can only provide “Limited Dual Agency”. In Limited Dual Agency the Realtor must not disclose either party’s motivation or final price to the other party and must not favour one Client over another.   In this case if you were the Seller which relationship would you choose?

There is no doubt there is a benefit to working with a professional and ethical Realtor who possesses experience, marketing skills and knowledge. On the selling side their duties include accurately reporting market conditions so Sellers can correctly price their properties, presenting the property well to the organized Real Estate marketplace and to the public, continuing to accurately report market conditions during the listing period and providing sound counsel once an offer is obtained. On the buying side a good Realtor will again accurately report market conditions, assist in the search of available properties, provide sound counsel during the offer process and assist the Buyer during the due diligence period.

Hope this helps…

Susanita de Diego

 

 

Calgary’s Real Estate Price Obsession

This is an interesting article in the Calgary Herald reporting on Calgary’s “obsession” with house prices.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Business/home+price+obsession/1486088/story.html

In my experience most of our clients are not obsessed with price. However they are “aware”. Our Seller Clients are aware that they need to be aggressively priced in order to sell and our Buyer Clients are aware that there is a lot of choice which can sometimes translate into terrific value.

 

I agree with Don Campbell’s comments regarding Real Estate as a long term investment and that we should be looking at the market through a telescope not a microscope. I also agree that the market is “just taking a breath.”

I think trying to time the purchase and sale of Real Estate as an investment or “flipping” is a little like day trading in the stock market, suitable only for a select few who have a high risk tolerance and who have the ability to hold their investments if the market turns. However with a Real Estate investment the property can be rented to mitigate a loss and to service the debt. Plus we all have to live somewhere and I would much rather own my home, even if I could have paid less for my home today than when I bought it. Unless I need to sell, as with my stock portfolio, any loss is only on paper.

I also think that good Realtors should analyze at the monthly numbers. Not mentioned in the article and I think of interest to everyone looking at the Calgary market is that the MLS median price for the last four months has been $340,000 in December, $340,000 in January, $342,000 in February and $340,000 in March. The average price for the same period has been $373,761, $373,978, $379,060 and $379,363.

I’ll leave the long term predictions to the economists but four months of consistent median and average prices when we have had almost a steady drop in values since August of 2007 is definitely a positive factor. Is this the beginning of the end of the price slide? Only time will tell…

Hope this helps,

Susanita de Diego

Calgary Housing Market Picks Up!

According to today’s article in the Calgary Herald  http://www.calgaryherald.com/Business/Calgary+housing+market+picks+speed/1453293/story.html things are looking up in the Calgary Real Estate Market. The data that supports the Author’s position comes from the statistics released by the Calgary Real Estate Board at the beginning of every month reporting on the activity of the previous month.

While we are encouraged by the increased sales activity there are different ways to interpret the data.

For example single family Calgary Metro sales were up by 261 sales in March 2009 from February 2009, terrific news! But sales were down by 332 sales from March 2008, not so terrific news. And sales were down by 1,186 sales from the “hot” market in March 2007, even less terrific news!

In my opinion a more significant statistic is the ratio of the number of sales compared to the existing inventory. In other words what portion of the available inventory is selling? The following graph illustrates the percentage of properties sold compared to the available inventory or the approximate absorbtion rate for single-family homes in Calgary Metro.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	March Month End Inventory Plus Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
March 2007	2,272	2,340 + 3131 = 5,471	41.53%
March 2008	1,418	5,957 + 3,493 = 9,450	15.01%
March 2009	1,086	4,369 +2,023 = 6,392	16.99%

  

What does this mean? For those of us watching the market it means that even though we have fewer sales than last year we actually have a slightly better absorbtion rate indicating a slightly stronger market.

The Condominium numbers for Calgary Metro are as follows:

Month/Year	Condominium Sales	March Month End Inventory Plus Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
March 2007	1,026	726 + 1,250 = 1,976	51.92%
March 2008	565	2,781 + 1,561 = 4,342	13.01%
March 2009	446	2,052 + 903 = 2,955	15.09%

 

It’s easy to see why prices increased in 2007 and why prices decreased in 2008. While March numbers are positive we would need to see several months of increased activity combined with fewer homes coming to the market for prices to significantly change.

In the meantime, Sellers who price their home aggressively will sell, because roughly 16% of properties are actually selling, and Buyer’s will continue to have choice.

Hope this helps!

Susanita de Diego

Low Interest Rates Equal Terrific Real Estate Investment Opportunities!

We all know that with any investment we should buy low and sell high but without the benefit of a crystal ball it is almost impossible to know the perfect timing! In fact, many of the new condominiums currently listed are owned by investors who could not have known when they purchased their yet to be built condos that the market would correct. So how do we know that the current market is as low as it is going to go? We don’t! Just like we didn’t know when the boom market was going to end. What we do know is that investors who try to perfectly time their “buy low sell high” usually wait too long! While we don’t know exactly what will happen next year we do know that all markets are cyclical and that the market should eventually recover.  So if one were to buy a property today even if market values dropped another 5% next year it is probably safe to say that in 5 years they still would be making money on their investment. Especially when considering current interest rates and revenue properties where the tenant is servicing the debt!

 

The following model is an approximate estimation of potential future gains assuming a purchase of a 2 bedroom condominium in downtown Calgary with an interest rate of 5% for a fixed 5 year term with a 35 year amortization. The way to achieve the best return as shown in these examples is to divide the monthly mortgage payment to make 2 payments per month and with a tenant servicing the debt.

 

Purchase Price	$225,000.00		Mortgage Pmt	$984.00
Down Payment	-33,750.00		Approx  Condo Fee	+300.00
	$191,250.00		Taxes Monthly	+110.00
CMHC Insurance	+3,730.00		Monthly Cost	$1,394.00
Total Mortgage	$194,980.00		Vacancy Allowance	+116.00
				1,510.00

 

Rental Income to cover costs $1,510 per month. Tenant to pay utilities not covered by the Condo Fee

 

Original Mortgage Balance	$194,980.00
Mortgage Balance in 60 Mos with Bi-Monthly Payments of $ 492.00	-$171,934.00
Reduction of Principal	$23,046.00

 

After 60 months:

 

Assuming no change in market value;

 

Total Investment	$33,750.00		Potential Profit	$23,046.00
Return on Investment	68.28%		Or	13.66% per Year

 

Assuming a 5% drop in market value in the 1^st year but a 2.5% increase in market value every year thereafter;

 

Total Investment	$33,750.00		Increase in Market Value	$23,940.01
			Reduction of Principal	+$23,046.00
			Potential Profit	$46,986.01
Return on Investment	139.22%		Or	27.84% per Year

 

Assuming a 5% drop in market value in the 1^st year but a 5% increase in market value every year thereafter;

 

Total Investment	$33,750.00		Increase in Market Value	$34,814.46
			Reduction of Principal	+$23,046.00
			Potential Profit	$57,860.00
Return on Investment	171.44%		Or	34.29% per Year

 

Obviously there is no guarantee that the market will perform as outlined above, however market value usually rises 3% to 7% in a “normal” market year.

 

Hope this helps!

 

Susanita de Diego

An Urban Myth: Foreclosures Are Always a Bargain

March/April 2009 AREA Update

 

An Urban Myth: Foreclosures Are Always a Bargain

For Canadians, it’s mind-boggling to hear about the prices foreclosures are going for in the United States. Fifty thousand dollars for a 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom, single-family, semi-detached home with enough closet space to hold fifty thousand pairs of shoes! Where do I sign?

 

Busted!

Typically, foreclosures aren’t as glorious in Canada as they are south of the border.

 

Why?

In Canada, there are two methods for lenders to recover mortgage debt:

1.     Judicial Sale – Lenders must receive the court’s permission before they can sell the property.

2.     Power of Sale – Lenders can sell the property without the court’s involvement.

Judicial sale is the primary debt-recovery method used in Alberta.

 

Two other important factors differentiate Canadian foreclosures from those in the United States. In Canada:

·        Properties cannot be sold under market value

·        Properties must be accompanied by an appraisal.

 

Risks

Aside from the likelihood that the foreclosure isn’t a great bargain, purchasers of foreclosure properties face several other risks. For example, banks have the ability to sell or dispose of property “as is”. This means that, before putting a property on the market, banks don’t have to remediate or repair structural defects, environmental or health hazards, or homes that have been condemned.

 

The Bottom Line

Before packing their shoes or reaching for their wallets, buyers should be advised to seek professional assessments. It’s never wise to buy something sight unseen. And if profit is the motivation behind purchasing foreclosures, Canadian buyers may be disappointed.

 

Hello All,

The above article appeared in the Alberta Real Estate Association Update for Realtors and because we get many requests from investors to find foreclosure properties I thought it would be helpful to share this information.

It is true that market conditions in Calgary continue to favour the buyer but there are all kinds of different scenarios occuring in our marketplace.

Whenever a property sells it will sell for one of three perceived values:

• Higher than market value
• Market value
• Lower than market value

 

When a property sells for higher than market it is usually when the buyer motivation is high. The buyer has sold their home or has been transferred to our city and has a limited time frame in which to make their purchase. In the case of a relocation client, their company is likely providing them with financial assistance. These buyers may not be as concerned with getting a good price because they are more concerned with getting the right house within a limited time. Higher than market value prices also occur when the market favours sellers with more demand than supply.

When a property sells for market value the buyer motivation and the seller motivation are fairly equal and both the buyer and the seller have time and market conditions do not favour the buyer or the seller.

When a property sells for less than market value it can be because market conditions favour buyers or if a seller is in some sort of time constraint for whatever reason. They may have already purchased another property or perhaps they are in financial distress. In this case a seller is willing to sell for less than perceived market value in order to sell within their time constraint.

The definition of “market Value” is what a property will sell for if the property is on the market for a reasonable period of time and neither the Buyer nor the Seller are under pressure.

Because there are different kinds of buyers;

• buyers who are investors who wish to rent and hold
• buyers who are investors that will only buy below market value and either re-sell or hold
• buyers who are buying for their own personal use

And because there are different kinds of sellers;

• sellers who will only sell if they are able to sell at a certain price
• sellers who want to sell but do not need to sell
• sellers who need to sell and will accept lower offers

sale prices can vary within neighborhoods. A professional Realtor can assist a buyer or a seller in determining realistic market value based on the data.

Hope this helps!

Susanita de Diego

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buyer Representation

Hello,

I have had a few meetings over the past few weeks with condominium owners who bought brand new condos directly from the developers and those meetings reminded me that I should post a blog about Buyer Agency Representation.

Many Buyers assume that if they are buying new product, whether it be a house or a condo, that they do not require or that they are not able to have a Realtor represent them.

It is important for Buyers to know that the Builder’s or Developer’s in house salespeople do not represent the Buyer’s interests and are not legally obligated to tell you certain things unless you ask.  They are employed and paid by the Builder or Developer. In addition most in house salespeople have not or are not involved in the purchase and sale or re-sale homes and can therefore be ill equipped to provide sound advice about which features or locations represent the best re-sale value in the future. Also most Builders and Developers have created their own Purchase Contracts with terms that reflect the Builder’s or Developer’s best interests and may contain terms that the Buyer may not know are not in the Buyer’s best interests. For a closer look at some actual clauses check out the CBC Marketplace report on condos at http://www.cbc.ca/marketplace/condo_crunch/ .

Representation by an experienced, professional Realtor can save the Buyer from many potentially expensive future issues when buying new product or indeed any home.

A good Realtor can assist in choosing locations and finishings that will be desirable to future Buyers. When choosing a location a good Realtor will assist the Buyer in determining what future development around the subject property could be. In terms of finishings and floor plan a good Realtor will be able to advise the Buyer about what is popular and what will probably have value to a future Buyer. Realtors can also provide the Buyer with recent sales of similar properties, not only to determine current market value but also to show the different values of new and resale properties. A good Realtor will also negotiate on behalf of the Buyer. Many Buyers assume or are told that they are not able to negotiate the Builder’s or Developer’s price but sometimes negotiation is possible.

I’m sure that there are many home owners who have had great experiences in buying and/or building new properties and many Builders and Developers who do the right thing. Unfortunately, I often meet home owners that have bought properties that have less square footage than quoted by the developer, are in a poor location in a neighborhood or a building or have finishings that are unpopular or that were too expensive for the home owner to receive a return on their investment. One homeowner I know who bought a 2 bedroom and den apartment condo ended up with only a 2 bedroom with no den AND the developer ran out of money and – well within the rights accorded to them in the purchase contract they composed – leased the elevators to the new owners so that their condo fee was more than double the most common condo fee in the marketplace. Another homeowner I know paid $7,000.00 for an extra parking stall that they would not have title to because it was common property and therefore only assigned and could eventually be assigned to another owner or resident!

Our personal residences are often our largest asset. At the very least when buying new product the prudent
Buyer should get their purchase contract reviewed by a lawyer who specializes in Real Estate. The lawyer review should be a condition in their contract. Should one choose to have representation it is important to interview Realtors and to choose a Realtor that has experience in both new and resale properties. When buying a condo there are many additional considerations. Therefore it is extremely important to choose a Realtor who has a lot of experience and additional education regarding condominium ownership.

It is easy to get caught up in the excitement of “new” but a prudent Buyer will always look before they leap!

Hope this helps…

Susanita de Diego

A Change is in the Wind….

After many months of an ever increasing gap between the total number of available properties and the the total number of sales there has been a slight narrowing of the gap! Hooray! Or perhaps I should say Yahoo! It is Stampede week after all! Does this mean a return to double digit percentage price increases, multiple offers and a feeding frenzy? Heck no! But this slight change is an early indicator of a return to a more balanced market. How do we know this? Market watchers are probably aware of the monthly statistics published by the Calgary Real Estate Board but many are unaware of the daily statistics posted on www.creb.com. Here you can see the Calgary Metro Area Single Family Statistics which show the total number of available single family homes and the total number of single family homes sold in the last 30 days. Today we have 6,563 available homes. This may seem like a lot but it is down from our high of 7,292 posted on May 30th. The total number of sales are up from 770 posted January 6, 2008 to 1,363 posted today. To put these number is perspective; when we had 770 sales we had 3,480 available listings so 20.11% of the available inventory was sold within the previous 30 days. When we had 7,292 available listings, 1,301 properties had sold the previous 30 days or 17.84% of the available inventory. Today at 6,563 there were 1,363 properties sold in the last 30 days or 20.77% of the total inventory.

Yes, this also means that 79.23% of the available homes have not sold and if you own one of the 79.23% you are still facing a very tough market.

It will also take several months to reach the better balance. Just as it took several months for the market to react when the prices were rising. It was April of 2007 when the inventory began to increase yet the highest average price was recorded in July of 2007.

Those of you who were waiting for the “Bottom” of the market might want to think about jumping in!

Hope this helps…

Susanita de Diego

Free Home Buyer’s Seminar

 

Come join us for a free Calgary Real Estate Home Buyer’s Seminar at 7PM – Tuesday June 24th, 2008.Where? – Jewish community Centre

1607 90th Ave SW, Calgary Alberta T2V4V7

WE WILL DISCUSS:

What is really happening in the Calgary Real Estate Market?

Is buying a property in Calgary a good investment?

What is happening in the rental market?

Is it a good time to buy?

IF YOU ARE CONSIDERING BUYING FOR INVESTMENT OR FOR YOURSELF YOU

DON’T WANT TO MISS THIS INFORMATIVE SEMINAR!

PRESENTED BY:

Coldwell Banker – Your Calgary Home selling Team

&

Invis Financial

To register please call:

Coldwell Banker Your Calgary Home Selling Team

(403)-686-1455

 

 

 

To Stage or Not to Stage – That is the Question

Hello,

Now that we have an overabundance of homes on the market many property owners have turned to professional home stagers to better present their homes to the market.

Is this to your benefit? The simple answer is – it depends!

For most of us, our principle residence is one of our largest assests – if not the largest. However it is also our home! How do we differentiate between our home as a commodity and our home as the place where we live with our children and pets?

In order to sell a home in this challenging market, we must!

It is very challenging to be able to view one’s home as a prospective buyer would. It is as difficult to continue one’s daily routine when one’s home could be shown at any time.

But before you run out to hire a professional staging company there are a few things you can do to prepare your property for sale.

First – sart packing! I cannot emphasize enough the importance of de-cluttering every area of the home beginning with the front porch and entry and extending thoughout every room in the house and all the way to the back deck and patio areas. Buyers need to be able to envision themselves and their possessions in a home and most will be unable to do so if they get distracted by an existing owner’s personal items. There is a reason most show homes are decorated and furnished very sparsly. The experts say you need to make four piles.

1) Keep and use. Only display items that you use every day.

2) Keep and store. These items should be stored off site to elimnate another type of clutter.

3) Sell or give away.

4) Toss.

You’re going to be moving anyway, you may as well start the packing process! 

Second – Clean everything very well. This includes appliances, windows, carpets and anything that will hold any odours. Nothing turns a prospective buyer off more than stains or smells.

Third – Touch-ups. If the walls, casings or cabinets have nicks or holes – repair and touch up the paint. The front door and entry should look especially inviting.

Lastly – Are the rooms set up for their intended use?  If you have converted your dining room to the kids computer room it will limit the use of the room in the minds of most buyers.

If you have completed all of the above items you are probably ready to put your house on the market and provided that you price your home correctly it should sell. However, you may still benefit from the assistance of a professional home stager in re-arranging or adding furniture and neutralizing the colour and decor.

Most defects can be countered by reducing the asking price, but sellers can benefit from some common sense pre-staging and professional staging.

Hope this helps!

Susanita de Diego