2010 Calgary Real Estate Market Begins With Lower Absorbtion Rate

While we seemed to have a good trend going at the end of 2009, 2010 seems to have begun with a bit of a thud! Is this cause for worry? Read on….

The most significant statistic, in my opinion, when considering market conditions, is what portion of the available inventory is selling? The following table shows the percentage of properties sold compared to the available inventory or the absorbtion rate for single-family homes in Calgary Metro year over year for the month of January for the last four years.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	Month End Inventory + Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
January 2007	1,497	1,894 + 2,325 = 4,219	35.48%
January 2008	1,083	3,997 + 3,023 = 7,020	15.43%
January 2009	550	4,040 + 2,068 = 6,108	9%
January 2010	762	2,513 + 1,822 = 4,335	17.58%

 The following table shows the absorbtion rate for each month since January of last year.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	Month End Inventory + Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
January  2009	550	4,040 + 2,068 = 4,248	12.95%
February 2009	825	4,352 + 2057 = 6,409	12.87%
March 2009	1,086	4,369 + 2,023 = 6,392	16.99%
April 2009	1,290	4,130 + 2,010 = 6,140	21.01%
May 2009	1,584	3,861 + 2,235 = 6,096	25.98%
June 2009	1,837	3,395 + 2,244 = 5,639	32.58%
July 2009	1,585	3,314 + 2,089 = 5,403	29.34%
August 2009	1,277	3,296 + 1,910 = 5,206	24.53%
September 2009	1,257	3,148 + 1,857 = 5,005	25.11%
October 2009	1,285	3,003 + 1,819 = 4,822	26.65%
November 2009	1,095	2,658 + 1,365 = 4,023	27.22%
December 2009	799	2,054 + 806 = 2,860	27.94%
January 2010	762	2,513 + 1,822 = 4,335	17.58%

The absorbtion rate dropped from 27.94% in December to only 17.58% in January for single-family homes! Well that’s only one part of a market review, what has happened to the Median Price?

The Total MLS (including Condos and Country Residential) Median Price has shown the following progression:

 

Yikes! The Total MLS Median Price has dropped from $360,000 in October, November and December to only $352,000 in January! What does this all mean? Are we headed for another correction?

Before we panic, let’s review the data. First of all the Median Price reflects the middle price properties have sold for and it has only dropped 2.2%. This is probably a reflection of the fact that although single family sales were down 4.63% from December to January, condominium sales were up 9.31% from December to January.

Also year over year the absorbtion rate for single family homes has almost doubled. OK so we were deeply entrenched in a correction last January but our absorbtion rate January 2010 was still better than January 2008. The lower absorbtion rate has more to do with slower buyer activity than higher inventory. My opinion is that because we saw such strong sales activity in the last quarter of 2009, there were fewer buyers in January. The first few days in February are already proving to be much more active than last month.  Also the number of new listings this January was less than in January of 2009, 2008 and 2007.

Because interest rates remain low, some say until the middle of the year and some say for twelve to eighteen months, I predict the buyer activity will be strong – at least for the first quarter of 2010 – but because less than one quarter of available homes are selling properties still have to be accurately priced to sell. Buyers do have properties to choose from but because there is no longer super high inventory, not at bottom basement pricing. I will leave it to the economists to make long term predictions, but it looks like we will have a balanced market for the first quarter of 2010.

Hope this helps!

Susanita de Diego

What Can We Expect for Calgary Real Estate in 2010?

Happy New Year to our readers! For many of us who are involved in the business of real estate we will be happy to put 2009 behind us but what can we expect in 2010?

The most significant statistic, in my opinion, when considering market conditions, is what portion of the available inventory is selling? The following table shows the percentage of properties sold compared to the available inventory, or the absorbtion rate for single-family homes in Calgary Metro year over year for the month of December for the last three years.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	Month End Inventory + Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
December 2007	846	3,364 + 984 = 4,348	19.46%
December 2008	449	3,860 + 836 = 4,696	9.56%
December 2009	799	2,054 + 806 + 2,860	27.94%

 

The above data clearly shows how much better our market is going into 2010 when compared to the previous two years. In addition the following absorbtion rate table for each month since December of last year shows a very good absorbtion rate for the last eight months.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	Month End Inventory + Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
December 2008	449	3,860 + 836 = 4,696	9.56%
January  2009	550	4,040 + 2,068 = 4,248	12.95%
February 2009	825	4,352 + 2057 = 6,409	12.87%
March 2009	1,086	4,369 + 2,023 = 6,392	16.99%
April 2009	1,290	4,130 + 2,010 = 6,140	21.01%
May 2009	1,584	3,861 + 2,235 = 6,096	25.98%
June 2009	1,837	3,395 + 2,244 = 5,639	32.58%
July 2009	1,585	3,314 + 2,089 = 5,403	29.34%
August 2009	1,277	3,296 + 1,910 = 5,206	24.53%
September 2009	1,257	3,148 + 1,857 = 5,005	25.11%
October 2009	1,285	3,003 + 1,819 = 4,822	26.65%
November 2009	1,095	2,658 + 1,365 = 4,023	27.22%
December 2009	799	2,054 + 806 = 2,860	27.94%

 

I’ve always said that Real Estate is not rocket science, just common sense and the basic economics of supply and demand. Eight months of over one quarter of the available listings selling represents a balanced market. In other words this is a market that does not favour the buyer or the seller. Well priced properties will sell relatively quickly but more than 70% of properties are not selling so buyers still have some choice.

The Total MLS (including Condos and Country Residential) Median Price has shown the following progression:

The Calgary Real Estate Board reports both average and median prices. I prefer to judge market conditions by following median prices because average prices can be distorted by unusually high single sale prices. The median price shows us the “middle” price of all sales during any given month. The highest median price reported in 2009 was $360,000 which was achieved in June and then again in October and November and December. The difference between the lowest median price and the highest median price last year was 5.56%. Most of the economic forecasts I have heard predict a “normal” price increase in 2010 of 5% – 6%.

I will leave it to the economists to make long term predictions, but it looks like we have seen a return to balanced market conditions for the first quarter of 2010.

Hope this helps!

Susanita de Diego

Calgary Real Estate Year in Review

It’s hard to believe we are at the end of another year – and what an interesting real estate year it has been!  With the volatility of the market in 2009 I thought it would be helpful to provide our readers with a bit of a review.

The most significant statistic, in my opinion, when considering market conditions, is what portion of the available inventory is selling? The following table shows the percentage of properties sold compared to the available inventory, or the absorbtion rate for single-family homes in Calgary Metro year over year for the month of November for the last three years.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	Month End Inventory + Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
November 2007	1,103	4,984+ 1,949 = 6,933	13.74%
November 2008	670	5,083 + 1,567 = 6,650	10.08%
November 2009	1,095	2,658 + 1,365 = 4,023	27.22%

 

While a 27.22% absorbtion rate is good the best absorbtion rate this year for single family homes was in June when a whopping 32.58% of available properties were sold! The following table shows the absorbtion rate for each month since November of last year.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	Month End Inventory + Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
November 2008	670	5,083 + 1,567 = 6,650	10.08%
December 2008	449	3,860 + 836 = 4,696	9.56%
January  2009	550	4,040 + 2,068 = 4,248	12.95%
February 2009	825	4,352 + 2057 = 6,409	12.87%
March 2009	1,086	4,369 + 2,023 = 6,392	16.99%
April 2009	1,290	4,130 + 2,010 = 6,140	21.01%
May 2009	1,584	3,861 + 2,235 = 6,096	25.98%
June 2009	1,837	3,395 + 2,244 = 5,639	32.58%
July 2009	1,585	3,314 + 2,089 = 5,403	29.34%
August 2009	1,277	3,296 + 1,910 = 5,206	24.53%
September 2009	1,257	3,148 + 1,857 = 5,005	25.11%
October 2009	1,285	3,003 + 1,819 = 4,822	26.65%
November 2009	1,095	2,658 + 1,365 = 4,023	27.22%

 

I’ve always said that Real Estate is not rocket science, just common sense and the basic economics of supply and demand. Looking at the above data it is easy to see that although there were fewer sales in November than there were in August, September and October we actually had a better absorbtion rate in November than in those previous months.

The Total MLS (including Condos and Country Residential) Median Price has shown the following progression:

 

The Calgary Real Estate Board reports both average and median prices. I prefer to judge market conditions by following median prices because average prices can be distorted by unusually high single sale prices. The median price shows us the “middle” price of all sales during any given month. The lowest median price reported this year was $340,000 which represented the “bottom” of the market. The highest median price reported was $360,000 which was achieved in June and then again in October and November. The difference between the lowest median price and the highest median price in the last year was 5.56%.

In review, although the beginning of 2009 was difficult for anyone involved in the business of Real Estate, both the increase in the median price and the absorbtion rate should provide us with a return to a better market in 2010.

It is important however to consider because less than one third of available homes are selling properties still have to be accurately priced to sell. Buyers do have properties to choose from but because there is no longer super high inventory, not at bottom basement pricing. I will leave it to the economists to make long term predictions, but it looks like we have seen a return to balanced market conditions for the first quarter of 2010.

Hope this helps!

Susanita de Diego 

Calgary Real Estate Board points at October price rise as evidence housing market has turned

According to this article on November 3, 2009 from the Calgary Herald

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+Real+Estate+Board+points+October+price+rise+evidence+housing+market+turned/2173739/story.html

The October price rise is evidence that the housing market has turned …… or has it?

As I stated in a previous blog in my opinion a more significant statistic is the ratio of the number of sales compared to the existing inventory. In other words what portion of the available inventory is selling? The following graph illustrates the percentage of properties sold compared to the available inventory or the approximate absorbtion rate for single-family homes in Calgary Metro.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	October Month End Inventory Plus Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
October2007	1,113	5,517+ 2,586 = 8,103	13.74%
October2008	820	5,522 + 2,322 = 7,844	10.45%
October2009	1,285	3,003 + 1,819 = 4,822	26.65%

While a 26.65% absorbtion rate is very good the best absorbtion rate for single family homes we have seen this year was in June when a whopping 32.58% of available properties were sold! The following graph shows the absorbtion rate for each month since the beginning of the year.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	Month End Inventory Plus Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
January 2009	550	4,040 + 2,068 = 4,248	12.95%
February 2009	825	4,352 + 2057 = 6,409	12.87%
March2009	1,086	4,369 + 2,023 = 6,392	16.99%
April2009	1,290	4,130 + 2,010 = 6,140	21.01%
May2009	1,584	3,861 + 2,235 = 6,096	25.98%
June2009	1,837	3,395 + 2,244 = 5,639	32.58%
July2009	1,585	3,314 + 2,089 = 5,403	29.34%
August2009	1,277	3,296 + 1,910 = 5,206	24.53%
September2009	1,257	3,148 + 1,857 = 5,005	25.11%
October 2009	1,285	3,003 + 1,819 = 4,822	26.65%

I’ve always said that Real Estate is not rocket science, just common sense and the basic economics of supply and demand. Looking at the above data it is easy to see the trends over time.

What is also interesting is the interpretation of the changes in the median and average sale prices. The median single family residential price decreased from $360,000 In June to $353,000 in July and to only $350,000 in August. The median price increased to $399,900 in September and increased again to $410,000 in October.

The average single family residential price was $402,621 in June, $394,968 in July, $397,863 in August and increased to $459,085 in September and increased again to $462,465. The average price will definitely be affected by any unusually high sale. I have always looked at the median price as the true indicator of changing market values.

The median and average price increases indicate that the sales in the summer represented entry-level buyers and the sales in the fall represented move up buyers. This does NOT mean that all prices have increased by $50,000.00! With only approximately one quarter of available homes selling we do not have a lack of inventory which is usually the cause of increased prices in every market segment, as was the case in the Spring of 2006 and to a lesser extent in the Spring of 2007. Properties still have to be accurately priced to sell and buyers still have properties to choose from but because we no longer have an overabundance of inventory, not at bottom basement pricing. I will leave it to the economists to make long-term predictions, but it looks like we have seen a return to balanced market conditions.

Hope this helps!

Susanita de Diego

The Calgary Housing Market is in Full Recovery Mode…… or is it?

According to this article on September 2, 2009 from the Calgary Herald

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/index.html

The Calgary housing market is in full recovery mode…… or is it?

As I stated in a previous blog in my opinion a more significant statistic is the ratio of the number of sales compared to the existing inventory. In other words what portion of the available inventory is selling? The following graph illustrates the percentage of properties sold compared to the available inventory or the approximate absorbtion rate for single-family homes in Calgary Metro.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	August Month End Inventory Plus Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
August 2007	1,314	4,821 + 2,837 = 7,658	17.16%
August 2008	1,170	5,541 + 2,270 = 7,811	14.98%
August 2009	1,277	3,296 + 1,910 = 5,206	24.53%

 

While a 24.53% absorbtion rate is very good the best absorbtion rate for single family homes we have seen this year was in June when a whopping 32.58% of available properties were sold! The following graph shows the absorbtion rate for each month since the beginning of the year.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	August Month End Inventory Plus Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
January  2009	550	4,040 + 2,068 = 4,248	12.95%
February  2009	825	4,352 + 2057 = 6,409	12.87%
March 2009	1,086	4,369 + 2,023 = 6,392	16.99%
April 2009	1,290	4,130 + 2,010 = 6,140	21.01%
May 2009	1,584	3,861 + 2,235 = 6,096	25.98%
June 2009	1,837	3,395 + 2,244 = 5,639	32.58%
July 2009	1,585	3,314 + 2,089 = 5,403	29.34%
August 2009	1,277	3,296 + 1,910 = 5,206	24.53%

 

 

I’ve always said that Real Estate is not rocket science, just common sense and the basic economics of supply and demand. Looking at the above data it is easy to see the trends over time. Anyone involved in the Calgary Real Estate Market should also be aware that the median residential price has decreased from $360,000 In June to $353,000 in July and only $350,000 in August. The average residential price was $402,621 in June, $394,968 in July and $397,863 in August. The average price will definitely be affected by any unusually high sale such as the highest home sale ever recorded in Calgary’s history this August at $10.3 million. I have always looked at the median price as the true indicator of changing market values.

I will leave it to the economists to make long term predictions, but it looks like we have seen a return to balanced market conditions after a bit of a frenzy in May, June and July. Properties still have to be accurately priced to sell and buyers still have properties to choose from but no longer at bottom basement pricing.

Hope this helps!

Susanita de Diego

Has the Calgary Real Estate Market Hit Bottom?

According to the latest news release on June 1, 2009 from the Calgary Real Estate Board

http://www.creb.com/public/documents/statistics/2009/package/res-stats-2009-may.pdf

the number of single family homes and condos sold in May in Calgary Metro are both up from a year ago.

Year over year comparing 2009 to 2008, single family home sales were up by 16% and condo sales were up by 13%.

As I stated in a previous blog in my opinion a more significant statistic is the ratio of the number of sales compared to the existing inventory. In other words what portion of the available inventory is selling? The following graph illustrates the percentage of properties sold compared to the available inventory or the approximate absorbtion rate for single-family homes in Calgary Metro.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	March Month End Inventory Plus Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
May 2007	1,995	3,716 + 3,652 = 7,368	27.08%
May 2008	1,368	7,099 + 3,432 = 10,531	12.99%
May 2009	1,584	3,861 + 2,235 = 6,096	25.98%

 

For those of you who are currently in the market for a single family home you will have noticed that there is far less choice than a few short months ago! In fact the absorbtion rate for the month of March 2009 was only 16.99%.

When almost 26% of the available homes sell as in the month of May 2009 it is usually a reflection of a very healthy market. Properties still need to be priced at market value in order to sell but now face a lot less competition. Those who have been waiting for the “bottom” who have not yet bought have probably missed it – at least within this most recent cycle.

The condo market is still lagging behind the single family market but has also improved as can be seen from the following graph.

Month/Year	Condominium Sales	March Month End Inventory Plus Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
May 2007	887	1,173 +1,332 = 2,505	35.41%
May 2008	577	3,308 + 1,538 + 4,846	13.01%
May 2009	653	1,952 + 998 = 2,950	22.14%

 

I’ve always said that Real Estate is not rocket science, just common sense and the basic economics of supply and demand. Anyone involved in the Calgary Real Estate Market should be aware that the median price has increased from sitting at around $340,000 from December through to April up to $350,000 in May. The average price has increased to $394,397 in May after sitting between $373,000 and $379,000 for the past five months.

I will leave it to the economists to make long term predictions, but there has been a definite stabilization short term.

Hope this helps!

Susanita de Diego

Who is Your Real Estate Representative?

As of last month I have been in the Real Estate industry for 22 years. Having lived and breathed Real Estate for so long I sometimes forget that because Buyers and Sellers do not buy and sell Real Estate everyday that they may not share my knowledge about how our industry actually works. This can lead to erroneous assumptions about what is important in the buying and/or selling process.

On the selling side some property owners still believe that the Realtor who lists the property will be the same Realtor who brings the Buyer, when in fact this happens in only approximately 5% of Real Estate transactions. As a matter of fact, in many States in the US, one Realtor representing both the Buyer and the Seller, or Dual Agency, is forbidden. This is because of the potential conflict of interest. In Alberta, according to the laws that govern our industry, Realtors must disclose to a Buyer or Seller their legal relationship at the earliest possible moment.

In practice this means that any Realtor representing the Seller who receives a showing request directly from a Buyer MUST advise the Buyer of their Agency options at the very beginning of the relationship, often before they show the Seller’s home.

 The Buyers can choose a Customer relationship or a Client relationship. In a Customer relationship the Realtor MUST disclose to the Buyer that they will be representing the Seller and that while they have a duty to be fair, the Buyer will not receive “representation” or advice. If they want to receive full “representation” they must choose another Realtor to represent them. If they prefer a Client relationship the Realtor can provide them with “Agency” representation but because the Realtor is also representing the Seller he or she can only provide “Limited Dual Agency”. In Limited Dual Agency the Realtor must not disclose either party’s motivation or final price to the other party and must not favour one Client over another.  If you were a Buyer which relationship would you choose?

Some Sellers also assume that the Listing Realtor will be able to use their “sales” skills to “talk” a Buyer into paying more for their property. As you can see within “Limited Dual Agency” this is impossible for an ethical Realtor.

On the Buying side some Buyers believe that their Realtor will be able to find properties that are not yet listed and that the Buyers will be able to buy that property at a lower than market value price. In this case if a Realtor was able to locate a property that matched the Buyer’s criteria but was not yet listed, under the laws that govern our industry the Realtor MUST disclose to the Seller their legal relationship at the earliest possible moment and give them the options of a Customer relationship or a “Limited Dual Agency “ relationship. In a Customer relationship the Realtor MUST disclose that they are representing the Buyer and while they have a duty to be fair to the Seller they are on their own in a negotiation. If they want to receive full “representation” they must choose another Realtor to represent them.  If they prefer a Client relationship the Realtor can provide them with “Agency” representation but because the Realtor is also representing the Buyer he or she can only provide “Limited Dual Agency”. In Limited Dual Agency the Realtor must not disclose either party’s motivation or final price to the other party and must not favour one Client over another.   In this case if you were the Seller which relationship would you choose?

There is no doubt there is a benefit to working with a professional and ethical Realtor who possesses experience, marketing skills and knowledge. On the selling side their duties include accurately reporting market conditions so Sellers can correctly price their properties, presenting the property well to the organized Real Estate marketplace and to the public, continuing to accurately report market conditions during the listing period and providing sound counsel once an offer is obtained. On the buying side a good Realtor will again accurately report market conditions, assist in the search of available properties, provide sound counsel during the offer process and assist the Buyer during the due diligence period.

Hope this helps…

Susanita de Diego

 

 

Calgary’s Real Estate Price Obsession

This is an interesting article in the Calgary Herald reporting on Calgary’s “obsession” with house prices.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Business/home+price+obsession/1486088/story.html

In my experience most of our clients are not obsessed with price. However they are “aware”. Our Seller Clients are aware that they need to be aggressively priced in order to sell and our Buyer Clients are aware that there is a lot of choice which can sometimes translate into terrific value.

 

I agree with Don Campbell’s comments regarding Real Estate as a long term investment and that we should be looking at the market through a telescope not a microscope. I also agree that the market is “just taking a breath.”

I think trying to time the purchase and sale of Real Estate as an investment or “flipping” is a little like day trading in the stock market, suitable only for a select few who have a high risk tolerance and who have the ability to hold their investments if the market turns. However with a Real Estate investment the property can be rented to mitigate a loss and to service the debt. Plus we all have to live somewhere and I would much rather own my home, even if I could have paid less for my home today than when I bought it. Unless I need to sell, as with my stock portfolio, any loss is only on paper.

I also think that good Realtors should analyze at the monthly numbers. Not mentioned in the article and I think of interest to everyone looking at the Calgary market is that the MLS median price for the last four months has been $340,000 in December, $340,000 in January, $342,000 in February and $340,000 in March. The average price for the same period has been $373,761, $373,978, $379,060 and $379,363.

I’ll leave the long term predictions to the economists but four months of consistent median and average prices when we have had almost a steady drop in values since August of 2007 is definitely a positive factor. Is this the beginning of the end of the price slide? Only time will tell…

Hope this helps,

Susanita de Diego

Calgary Housing Market Picks Up!

According to today’s article in the Calgary Herald  http://www.calgaryherald.com/Business/Calgary+housing+market+picks+speed/1453293/story.html things are looking up in the Calgary Real Estate Market. The data that supports the Author’s position comes from the statistics released by the Calgary Real Estate Board at the beginning of every month reporting on the activity of the previous month.

While we are encouraged by the increased sales activity there are different ways to interpret the data.

For example single family Calgary Metro sales were up by 261 sales in March 2009 from February 2009, terrific news! But sales were down by 332 sales from March 2008, not so terrific news. And sales were down by 1,186 sales from the “hot” market in March 2007, even less terrific news!

In my opinion a more significant statistic is the ratio of the number of sales compared to the existing inventory. In other words what portion of the available inventory is selling? The following graph illustrates the percentage of properties sold compared to the available inventory or the approximate absorbtion rate for single-family homes in Calgary Metro.

Month/Year	Single Family Sales	March Month End Inventory Plus Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
March 2007	2,272	2,340 + 3131 = 5,471	41.53%
March 2008	1,418	5,957 + 3,493 = 9,450	15.01%
March 2009	1,086	4,369 +2,023 = 6,392	16.99%

  

What does this mean? For those of us watching the market it means that even though we have fewer sales than last year we actually have a slightly better absorbtion rate indicating a slightly stronger market.

The Condominium numbers for Calgary Metro are as follows:

Month/Year	Condominium Sales	March Month End Inventory Plus Inventory Added During the Month	Percentage of Available Inventory Sold
March 2007	1,026	726 + 1,250 = 1,976	51.92%
March 2008	565	2,781 + 1,561 = 4,342	13.01%
March 2009	446	2,052 + 903 = 2,955	15.09%

 

It’s easy to see why prices increased in 2007 and why prices decreased in 2008. While March numbers are positive we would need to see several months of increased activity combined with fewer homes coming to the market for prices to significantly change.

In the meantime, Sellers who price their home aggressively will sell, because roughly 16% of properties are actually selling, and Buyer’s will continue to have choice.

Hope this helps!

Susanita de Diego

Low Interest Rates Equal Terrific Real Estate Investment Opportunities!

We all know that with any investment we should buy low and sell high but without the benefit of a crystal ball it is almost impossible to know the perfect timing! In fact, many of the new condominiums currently listed are owned by investors who could not have known when they purchased their yet to be built condos that the market would correct. So how do we know that the current market is as low as it is going to go? We don’t! Just like we didn’t know when the boom market was going to end. What we do know is that investors who try to perfectly time their “buy low sell high” usually wait too long! While we don’t know exactly what will happen next year we do know that all markets are cyclical and that the market should eventually recover.  So if one were to buy a property today even if market values dropped another 5% next year it is probably safe to say that in 5 years they still would be making money on their investment. Especially when considering current interest rates and revenue properties where the tenant is servicing the debt!

 

The following model is an approximate estimation of potential future gains assuming a purchase of a 2 bedroom condominium in downtown Calgary with an interest rate of 5% for a fixed 5 year term with a 35 year amortization. The way to achieve the best return as shown in these examples is to divide the monthly mortgage payment to make 2 payments per month and with a tenant servicing the debt.

 

Purchase Price	$225,000.00		Mortgage Pmt	$984.00
Down Payment	-33,750.00		Approx  Condo Fee	+300.00
	$191,250.00		Taxes Monthly	+110.00
CMHC Insurance	+3,730.00		Monthly Cost	$1,394.00
Total Mortgage	$194,980.00		Vacancy Allowance	+116.00
				1,510.00

 

Rental Income to cover costs $1,510 per month. Tenant to pay utilities not covered by the Condo Fee

 

Original Mortgage Balance	$194,980.00
Mortgage Balance in 60 Mos with Bi-Monthly Payments of $ 492.00	-$171,934.00
Reduction of Principal	$23,046.00

 

After 60 months:

 

Assuming no change in market value;

 

Total Investment	$33,750.00		Potential Profit	$23,046.00
Return on Investment	68.28%		Or	13.66% per Year

 

Assuming a 5% drop in market value in the 1^st year but a 2.5% increase in market value every year thereafter;

 

Total Investment	$33,750.00		Increase in Market Value	$23,940.01
			Reduction of Principal	+$23,046.00
			Potential Profit	$46,986.01
Return on Investment	139.22%		Or	27.84% per Year

 

Assuming a 5% drop in market value in the 1^st year but a 5% increase in market value every year thereafter;

 

Total Investment	$33,750.00		Increase in Market Value	$34,814.46
			Reduction of Principal	+$23,046.00
			Potential Profit	$57,860.00
Return on Investment	171.44%		Or	34.29% per Year

 

Obviously there is no guarantee that the market will perform as outlined above, however market value usually rises 3% to 7% in a “normal” market year.

 

Hope this helps!

 

Susanita de Diego